Africa's giants play tug of war for the top economic spot

Kenya is set to overtake Angola as 4th largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Ethiopia's GDP growth surpasses Kenya's, eyes Nigeria's spot.
IMF forecasts Egypt and Algeria to outshine Nigeria in economic rankings.

According to the IMF’s forecast, seen in the East African publication, Kenya is not only set to overtake Angola as a larger economy but it is also projected to remain that way till 2029.

On the other hand, Ethiopia, the largest economy in East Africa currently, is set to overtake Nigeria as the second largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Ethiopia’s economy had been smaller than Kenya’s in 2020, but grew faster, eventually gaining the country to $159.74 billion (Sh21.165 trillion) in 2023.

In the same year, Kenya’s GDP was estimated at $108.9 billion (Ksh15.14 trillion, from $113.7 billion (Ksh13.37 trillion at the existing rate then) in 2022.

“Several low-income developing countries returned to international markets after a hiatus in early 2024 (Benin, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya), allowing them to refinance maturing debt,” the Fiscal Monitor report for April by the IMF, noted.

“However, at present, governments should carefully consider the trade-offs between current financing and future fiscal sustainability associated with issuing public debt at high costs,” it adds.

It was reported a week ago that the International Monetary Fund forecasts that Nigeria, formerly Africa's largest economy, would lose its title and fall to fourth position this year. It would however remain second in Sub-Sahara Africa behind South Africa.

Egypt and Algeria are set to boast larger economies than Nigeria with an estimated GDP of $348 billion, and $267 billion respectively, to Nigeria’s $253 billion based on current prices this year.

Egypt, which held the top spot in 2023, is likely to fall to second place behind South Africa, owing to a series of currency depreciations.