Turkish media delinks Lumbuye from embassy protests

Turkish media has challenged claims that the September 18 protest outside Türkiye’s embassy in Kampala centred on government critic Fred Lumbuye, arguing that Uganda’s concerns over Somalia drove the demonstration.

In an analysis published by Türkiye Today, journalist and researcher Umut Çağrı Sarı said Lumbuye had lived in Türkiye since 2013 without causing a major diplomatic dispute.

Sarı argued that Lumbuye became a convenient public justification as Uganda faced the possible end of its military deployment and related revenue in Somalia.

The Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), however, publicly described the protest as a campaign to secure Lumbuye’s extradition. PLU secretary general Fadil Twalla accused him of using Türkiye as a base to attack Uganda’s leaders and spread harmful propaganda.

Ugandan authorities accuse Lumbuye of incitement, offensive communication and cybercrimes. Türkiye has not publicly agreed to extradite him. 

A day after the protest, the Uganda People’s Defence Forces suspended all military and defence cooperation with Türkiye. Col Chris Magezi, the acting director of Defence Public Information, said the measure would remain until the two countries resolved outstanding issues.

The UPDF statement named neither Lumbuye nor Somalia as the cause of the suspension. 

Sarı linked the disagreement to Türkiye’s expanding security and commercial presence in Somalia. Ankara has trained Somali soldiers, established the TURKSOM military base and invested in the country’s port, airport, energy and infrastructure sectors.

He argued that Somalia’s growing capacity and Türkiye’s influence had reduced its reliance on Ugandan troops. The analysis also claimed Kampala risked losing millions of dollars each year if its deployment ended.

“The Somali government is now able to secure its capital and surrounding regions on its own, and as state capacity grows it needs less outside support. A mission completing its task ought to count as a success for the countries that contributed troops. Kampala's reaction explains why it does not,” he wrote.

“Every Ugandan soldier in Somalia earns Kampala at least $1,000 a month…. If the mission ends and the troops go home, the loss comes to $5–6 million a month, or $60–72 million a year.” 

Sari further argued that because Muhoozi regards Ankara as the principal stakeholder in Somali security, he calculates that if pressed hard enough, it can get the decision in Mogadishu reversed. 

“The demonstration outside the embassy was staged not to extradite a dissident but to manufacture a public pretext for this bargaining. Lumbuye's 13 years of exile were chosen as that pretext.”

However, concerns about Somalia’s ability to maintain security without African Union troops remain. 

Analysts fear weakening the mission could destabilise the country and strengthen al-Shabaab. The United States has allowed another year for the United Nations to wind down logistical support for the African force. 

Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba has accused Türkiye of benefiting commercially from security established through Uganda’s sacrifices against al-Shabaab. He has demanded a $1 billion “security dividend” and questioned why Uganda bears military costs while Türkiye secures business opportunities.

He also threatened to withdraw Ugandan troops unless partners addressed the mission’s funding problems. Türkiye, meanwhile, maintains that its role includes substantial investment in Somalia’s military, public infrastructure and economic development.