Uganda braces for El Niño rains as global weather pattern strengthens; Here are 10 tips to keep safe

The Office of the Prime Minister has warned Ugandans to prepare for possible El Niño rains during the September-December 2026 season, with the wet conditions potentially extending into 2027.

In a public alert issued on August 14, 2026, the OPM warned that above-normal rainfall could increase the risk of floods, landslides, damage to infrastructure, disease outbreaks and loss of livelihoods.

The warning comes as El Niño strengthens across the tropical Pacific Ocean. 

The US Climate Prediction Center said this week there is more than a 90 per cent chance that the event will become very strong during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026-27.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern caused by unusual warming of surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The warming changes winds and rainfall patterns across large parts of the world.

The phenomenon normally occurs every two to seven years and can last for several months. It often brings heavy rainfall to some regions and drought or extreme heat to others.

The OPM identified flood-prone lowlands, poorly drained urban areas, river catchments, wetlands and mountainous regions as some of the places facing the greatest danger in Uganda.

Residents have been asked to clear drainage channels and avoid settling or farming in high-risk areas.

The government also warned people against crossing flooded roads, bridges and rivers.

People should avoid sheltering under trees during thunderstorms, while parents and guardians have been advised to ensure children are accompanied to and from school during dangerous weather.

Farmers have been advised to store food and seeds on raised platforms and move livestock to higher ground where flooding is expected.

Households should also prepare emergency supplies, including safe drinking water, food and medicine.

The OPM urged the public to follow weather forecasts and early-warning messages and to leave high-risk areas early when authorities order evacuations.

Uganda's warning forms part of growing concern about the developing El Niño event worldwide.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said this week that El Niño is already firmly established, with ocean and atmospheric indicators pointing to a strong event. The agency expects it to strengthen further and potentially persist into 2027.

The effects are also beginning to appear across parts of Latin America.

Southern Brazil has recorded increased rainfall, while forecasts indicate wetter conditions could also affect Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. The same pattern could bring flooding and crop disease even as additional rain improves soil moisture in some agricultural areas.

Northern and western Brazil, however, face the opposite problem, with El Niño associated with hotter and drier conditions.

Peru also faces an increased flood threat as warmer Pacific waters influence weather along South America's western coast. The warming has affected its fishing industry because some fish species have moved into deeper and cooler waters.

Indonesia and parts of the western Pacific are already recording suppressed rainfall linked to the developing El Niño. NOAA said rainfall has increased across the central and eastern tropical Pacific while decreasing around Indonesia.

The World Meteorological Organisation warned in July that the strengthening event could raise global temperatures and cause major changes in rainfall patterns from August onwards.

Scientists caution that El Niño does not produce identical effects everywhere and cannot be blamed for every flood, drought or heatwave. Local weather systems and climate change can strengthen or weaken its impact.

For Uganda, the OPM has placed emphasis on early preparation as authorities watch the September-December rainfall season.

The government wants households in vulnerable areas to act before flooding or landslides begin rather than wait until communities are cut off or displaced.