Millers speak out as wheat flour price jumps by 40%

Ugandan wheat millers have blamed the depreciation of the Ugandan shilling against the US dollar, rising fuel prices and disruptions to international supply chains for a sharp increase in wheat flour prices, and warned of further increases in the cost of everyday food products.

According to bakers and other users around Kampala, the price of a carton of wheat flour from certain brands has risen from Shs 74,000 to Shs 105,000, representing an increase of nearly 42%.

This is forcing bakeries and other businesses that depend on wheat flour to adjust their prices.

Vivian Nakalyango, who operates a confectionery business, told BBS TV that the increase has left her struggling to maintain production costs.

She said she has already raised the prices of her cakes while reducing their sizes to keep her business running.

The situation could worsen in the coming weeks as more businesses pass the rising costs of wheat flour on to consumers.

At Maganjo Grain Millers, the manufacturers of Jiko wheat flour, officials say the rising cost of importing wheat has made it difficult to maintain existing prices.

Emmanuel Ssuuna, who heads the milling department at the factory, attributed the increase to the weakening Ugandan shilling against the US dollar and rising fuel prices.

Ssuuna said the exchange rate had risen from about Shs 3,700 to Shs 4,300 per US dollar, making wheat imports more expensive.

"We import all wheat from outside the country and pay in dollars. When you add the fuel factor, you find that a kilo of wheat which we were selling at 2,000 has to go to 3,000 or more, if we are to stay in business," Ssuuna said.

Ssuuna explained that the challenges extend beyond exchange rates, with international conflicts disrupting wheat shipments and increasing the risks associated with importing the commodity.

He cited the war involving Russia and Ukraine among the factors affecting international wheat supply chains, claiming that the company had recently lost a shipment after the vessel transporting it was struck.

Uganda relies heavily on imported wheat to supply its milling and baking industries.

According to international trade data compiled by the World Bank, Russia and Argentina were Uganda's largest wheat suppliers in 2025, followed by Australia, the United States and Germany.

This dependence on imports leaves local manufacturers exposed to fluctuations in international wheat prices, foreign exchange rates and transport costs.

On Thursday, the Uganda Bakers Association announced new bread prices, citing the rising cost of wheat flour, yeast, baking fat and transportation.

Association chairman Guster Lule Ntake said members had agreed to increase the wholesale price of a one-kilogramme loaf to Shs 5,500, with retailers expected to sell it at Shs 6,500 starting Monday, November 2, 2026.

The retail price of a 500-gramme loaf is also expected to rise from Shs 3,000 to Shs 3,500.

Ntake said the decision followed a meeting at which bakers reviewed their production costs and concluded that they could no longer maintain the existing prices without affecting their operations.

However, bread may not be the only product affected.

Other common wheat-based foods, including chapati, mandazi, doughnuts, cakes, biscuits, pastries and pizza, could become more expensive in the coming weeks if the higher flour prices persist.

Some traders may choose to increase prices, while others could reduce portion sizes to avoid losing customers.

For households, the changes could mean spending more on breakfast and snacks at a time when businesses are also struggling with higher operating costs.