Was President Museveni misguided about Mbarara Airport Project?

Ugandan social media has been abuzz lately about the prospects of an international standard hyper-modern airport being constructed at Nyakisharara in the outskirts of Mbarara City.

The government through its official social media channels on Friday posted (and later deleted) an artistic impression of what the airport would look like, only for some Ugandans to quickly point out that this was in fact an image of an airport already in existence in China.

The buzz around the project followed a letter dated February 11, 2026, in which President Yoweri Museveni greenlighted construction of the facility.

In the correspondence addressed to Prime Minister Robinah Nabbanja, the president directed government departments to support a private investor identified as “Base Seven Company” in constructing the facility.

The proposed airport, he argued, would serve as a strategic refuelling hub linking China and Brazil, two regions whose trade ties are rapidly expanding. 

The president suggests that flights between South America and East Asia currently take between 34 and 42 hours, but could be reduced to about 20 hours if aircraft stopped in Nyakisharara. 

He estimates a journey of nine hours from South America to Nyakisharara and 11 hours onward to China.

However, these claims are likely based on a serious misunderstanding of how long-distance flight routes actually work. The shortest connection between China and Brazil is through the Middle East or Europe. A stop over in Uganda would simply make the flight longer and attractive to airlines.

The shortest path between two points on a sphere is known as the Great Circle Route. Because the Earth is round, the most efficient flight paths appear curved on flat maps.

When airlines plan long-haul routes, they follow these great-circle paths to minimize both distance and fuel consumption. A line drawn across a flat map can be misleading because the Earth’s curvature distorts distances, particularly between continents.

For example, the shortest path between eastern Asia and southern South America generally arcs across the Middle East or Asia , rather than passing through Africa.

Geographically, Nyakisharara in western Uganda lies far off the optimal great-circle path between China and Brazil. Routing aircraft through East Africa would require a major detour south-west from Asia and then back west across the Atlantic toward South America.

Instead of shortening the journey, this route would add thousands of kilometres to the trip. In aviation terms, that means higher fuel costs, longer flight times, and reduced profitability for airlines.

For instance, a flight between Rio de Janeiro and Beijing stopping over at Adolfo Suárez Madrid–Barajas Airport in Madrid would total roughly 17,500–17,600 km, staying very close to the shortest possible path. 

By contrast, routing the same trip through western Uganda would split the journey into roughly 9,800 km from Rio to Uganda and about 8,900 km from Uganda to Beijing, giving a total of approximately 18,700–19,000 km. 

This means the Ugandan stopover would add roughly 1,400–1,700 km compared with the optimal great-circle routing via Madrid, translating into additional flying time and fuel costs; key reasons airlines generally favour hubs positioned close to the great-circle corridor.

Even modern long-range aircraft such as the Boeing 787 Dreamliner or the Airbus A350 are designed to follow the most direct great-circle routes precisely to avoid such detours.

In reality, there are no non-stop commercial flights between China and Brazil today. Most passengers travel through major global hubs such as Doha, Dubai, Addis Ababa, or European cities.

These routes follow the most efficient geographic arcs while also leveraging established airline hubs with high passenger demand.

If stopping in East Africa genuinely reduced travel time between Asia and South America, airlines would already be using airports such as Entebbe International Airport in Uganda or Jomo Kenyatta International Airport in Kenya as regular refuelling points.

Airlines are extremely sensitive to operational costs, and even small reductions in distance can save millions of dollars annually in fuel. 

The absence of regular China–Brazil stopovers in East Africa suggests that the route is not geographically efficient.

The Nyakisharara proposal, according to the president’s letter, would be financed by investors including BlackRock under a Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) arrangement. 

The project would reportedly cover 21 square miles and include hotels and other supporting facilities.

While infrastructure investment is often welcome in developing regions, aviation demand cannot be created purely by geography or political vision. 

Airlines base route decisions on complex models involving distance, passenger demand, fuel economics, and existing networks.

If the underlying assumption that Nyakisharara offers a shorter intercontinental route is incorrect, the airport could struggle to attract the international traffic it is meant to serve.

In the highly competitive world of global aviation, geography ultimately sets the rules. And according to those rules, Uganda is unlikely to become the preferred bridge between China and Brazil.