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Ugandan coffee farmers have been given hope following a few months of crashing downturn in global prices.
The Minister of Agriculture, Hon Frank Tumwebaze, has this week projected a steady rise in coffee prices leading up to September, offering relief to the farmers.
Speaking in a televised interview, the minister acknowledged the recent dip in Robusta coffee prices but assured farmers that the trend is temporary.
Price Recovery Expected by September
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Tumwebaze says his Ministry is closely monitoring global coffee prices, and early signs indicate a recovery.
Since early July, he said, prices have risen by up to shs. 500 per kilogram, signalling the beginning of an upward trend.
"From now up to September, we project—based on market study—that the price will continue to pick up all the way to Shs. 13,000," Tumwebaze said.
While it remains uncertain whether prices will return to previous highs, the minister assured farmers of gradual improvements in the coming months.
More so, the Minister says, natural disasters are much more frequent in major coffee producing countries compared to Uganda.
“The major coffee-producing countries are at a big disadvantage compared to us because for them, the natural disasters are more frequent. God has been more gracious to us,” he said.
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Ugandan coffee takes a hit
Only Robusta Coffee is affected
The Minister clarified that only Robusta coffee, which constitutes 90% of Uganda’s coffee exports, has been affected, while Arabica coffee from regions like Kasese and Mt. Elgon remains stable at shs. 15,000–18,000 per kilogram.
The minister attributed the current price slump to improved weather conditions in major coffee-producing nations like Brazil and Vietnam, leading to an oversupply in the global market. However, he expressed optimism that prices will rebound as the harvest season in these countries comes to an end.
Tumwebaze outlined several reasons for the recent decline in Robusta coffee prices. First, extreme weather conditions in Brazil and Vietnam had previously reduced yields, pushing prices up.
However, with improved weather, Brazil’s coffee production is expected to rise by 0.5% to 65 million bags in 2025/26, while Vietnam anticipates an increase from 29 million to 31 million bags.
Global coffee production is also projected to reach a record 178.7 million bags in 2025/26, intensifying market competition.
Market speculation has also played a role, with the ICE Coffee Futures contract hitting its lowest point since January 2025 on 17th June.