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Ugandan coffee farmers are being called to strap up as the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries projects that global coffee prices will continue their decline in the coming months.
Minister of Agriculture Frank Tumwebaze yesterday provided an update on the prevailing coffee market dynamics, explaining the current downturn.
The Minister, however, noted Uganda's robust export performance and urged local farmers to maintain quality and productivity amidst these global shifts.
Current Trends and Contributing Factors
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Uganda has experienced a decline in coffee prices over the past month, a direct consequence of a broader global reduction.
According to the Ministry's market analysis, farm gate prices for Robusta (FAQ) are currently ranging between UGX 10,000 and UGX 11,000, while Robusta (Kiboko) fetches between UGX 5,000 and UGX 5,500.
Arabica (parchment) is trading at UGX 14,000 to UGX 15,000, with clean Drugar coffee also selling within the UGX 14,000 range.
This contrasts sharply with the high prices observed over the preceding two years, which were attributed to heightened global demand, adverse weather conditions affecting key producing regions, and escalating costs across the supply chain.
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Coffee farmers are being urged to go back to good farming practices
Droughts, floods, and extreme temperatures in countries like Brazil and Vietnam significantly impacted coffee yields, particularly Robusta, leading to reduced export availability and subsequent price hikes.
The current global price decline, Tumwebaze said, is primarily driven by several factors unrelated to government policy.
Improved weather conditions in Brazil, a major coffee producer, have led to increased harvest expectations. Brazil's coffee production is projected to rise by 0.5% to 65 million bags in 2025/26, with Vietnam also anticipating an increase from 29 million to 31 million bags.
This increased supply, particularly of Robusta, has contributed to an market oversupply.
Furthermore, fluctuations in currency exchange rates, especially the strengthening of the US dollar, are negatively impacting the profitability of coffee exports, thus pushing market prices down.
Global demand forecasts for 2025/26 indicate a record world coffee production of 178.7 million bags, 4.3 million higher than the previous year, driven by recovery in Vietnam, Indonesia, and Ethiopia.
Market speculation, where traders and investors engage in buying and selling coffee futures based on anticipated market movements, also contributes to price volatility. The ICE Coffee Futures contract notably reached its lowest point since January on 17th June 2025.
Uganda's Resilience Amidst Global Shifts
Despite the global trend of declining prices, Uganda's coffee industry has demonstrated resilience.
The Ministry's monthly report for May 2025 reveals that Uganda exported 7.43 million bags of coffee, valued at US$2.09 billion,for the period from June 2024 to May 2025. This marks a substantial increase compared to the previous year(June 2023-May 2024), during which 6.08 million bags valued at US$1.08 billion were exported.
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A coffee farmer from western Uganda
This represents a significant increase of 22% in quantity and 93.6% in value, respectively. This performance indicates a positive trajectory for Uganda's coffee sector, even as global prices face downward pressure.
The Minister says that fluctuations in coffee prices are not unprecedented, as coffee is an internationally traded commodity subject to various market forces.
Historical data over the past decade shows that average coffee export prices have consistently fluctuated between USD 1.53 and USD 3.11 per kilogram, with FY 2020/21 recording the lowest price at USD 1.53/kg.
In light of the current market outlook, Tumwebaze issued a call to action for all coffee farmers across the country.
He urged them to remain steadfast, continue planting coffee, and ensure the production of high-quality beans.
The Minister stressed the importance of competing favourably with major international producers like Brazil and Vietnam and encouraged farmers to explore ways to add value to their produce to maximise earnings from each kilogram of coffee sold.