Why Bobi Wine might have risked an outdoor video

Opposition leader Bobi Wine has been on the run since security forces surrounded his home in Magere on 16 January 2026 following the presidential election. 

That evening, he says, he fled from his home when it got surrounded by armed security personnel and has been in hiding since.

However, following last Friday night’s forceful raid on his home where his wife and family members were reportedly assaulted by armed men in military and civilian attire, yesterday Bobi Wine recorded and shared a video of himself speaking about the incident.

The video itself captured people’s attention — not just for its content but for where and how it was filmed. 

The clip opens with a pan of a city landscape before showing Wine speaking from what appears to be a rooftop or elevated outdoor spot. 

That background has led to intense speculation about his location: some viewers think it looks like part of Kampala, while others even suggested Kigali (though no one has confirmed the exact spot). 

Some of his supporters expressed worry that he was compromising his own security

One Hillary Taylor wrote, “The first two  seconds needed to be cropped out you are only tipping the intelligence guys on where to capture you from easily.  You don't have to show the background if you care about your safety. It's like you're playing hide and seek with security forces now.”

Ana Stacy wrote, “You need to blur the background.”

Other users however, believe Bobi Wine did this intentionally to throw off the intelligence.

“He is trying to show how unintelligent the intelligence is” 

For a high-profile fugitive wanted by senior military commanders, releasing a public video from outdoors seems counter-intuitive. 

Political leaders in hiding often need to show their supporters that they are still active, committed and unbowed — especially when under intense pressure.

By appearing publicly, even on video, Wine may have aimed to signal strength and resilience to his base, rather than surrender to forces seeking his arrest. This kind of public defiance makes a statement that he remains unbroken despite the situation.

Although security watchers and some of Bobi Wine’s own backers criticised the background as “revealing too much”, there’s another possibility: misdirection. 

Even if the skyline looks like Kampala, Wine or his team might have *deliberately chosen a location that was not where he was actually staying — perhaps a carefully selected out-of-the-way neighbourhood, or even a set built to resemble one.

Misleading physical cues is a known idea in evasive strategies: fugitives, insurgent leaders and combatants sometimes control what cameras can see so that authorities cannot pinpoint their exact location. 

In the past, analysts have even tried to use video backgrounds to locate wanted figures, such as trying to identify landscapes behind masked militants on online videos. 

Analysts working to unmask the so-called “Jihadi John” examined video topography to try to fix his whereabouts — showing how security agencies may try to exploit visual clues. 

It’s impossible to know for certain without direct insight into Bobi Wine’s strategy, but there are several plausible reasons to believe that he wanted to show strength and defiance to supporters, or may have used a misleading backdrop to frustrate trackers.

At the same time, critics’ concerns shouldn’t be dismissed outright: for someone evading military intelligence, even an indirect visual cue can carry risk if not managed carefully.

What his video really signifies may be a deliberate balance between political messaging and tactical concealment, rather than simple carelessness.