Joseph Kabuleta on why father-son transition not possible in Uganda

• Joseph Kabuleta says a direct Museveni-to-Muhoozi transition is unlikely in Uganda.

• He argues Uganda lacks the elite networks that sustain political dynasties elsewhere.

• Kabuleta predicts Uganda’s post-Museveni future will involve political negotiations among various actors.

Former presidential candidate Joseph Kabuleta has predicted that  Uganda will not have direct father-to-son transfer of power from President Yoweri Museveni to his son Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba.

He argued that the political conditions that sustain dynastic succession elsewhere do not exist in Uganda.

Kabuleta described the idea as a “fantasy,” insisting that Uganda’s post-Museveni transition will likely involve negotiations among multiple political and military actors rather than a straightforward handover.

The journalist-turned politician contrasted Uganda with countries such as Cameroon, where long-serving President Paul Biya is widely believed to be positioning his son as a potential successor.

According to Kabuleta, the difference is that in countries with dynastic transitions, there are broader elite networks that benefit from maintaining the ruling family in power.

“I know that there have been countries in Africa where fathers have been succeeded by sons.  I am seeing that likelihood in Cameroon after so many years of Paul Biya, his son is now Vice President and in line to take over,” he said 

“But there is a difference between Uganda and those countries. In Cameroon, the president is just a figurehead. That is why he wins elections and goes on holidays until the next election. "

“There are people who are running the country, and there is a whole sphere of influential people who have a vested interest in carrying on the Biya dynasty.  They want him to stay in power, not for himself but for their own sake.”

In contrast, Kabuleta said, such an elite  circle of beneficiaries in Uganda has almost vanished in Uganda due to President Museveni’s style of politics

“The difference with Uganda is that Museveni is very selfish; his style has been that he uses and dumps people,” Kabuleta claimed.

“Because all the people he started with, he has used and dumped, now the beneficiary sphere has reduced and is almost down to his immediate family. That is not enough to sustain a transition. The people who would be pushing for his son to replace him for their own survival as is the case in Cameroon, are not there; it is just Museveni and his family.”

For years, Ugandan politics has been dominated by speculation over the so-called “Muhoozi Project; ”a term used to describe alleged efforts to prepare Gen Muhoozi Kainerugaba for eventual leadership.

The debate intensified after Muhoozi rose rapidly through military ranks and later became Chief of Defence Forces. 

Analysts and opposition figures have long pointed to his growing political influence, public rallies and social media activity as signs of succession ambitions. 

Although President Museveni has never officially named a successor, several reports and political analyses have described Muhoozi as the most likely heir apparent within the ruling establishment. 

In recent years, Muhoozi has also built a strong public profile through the Patriotic League of Uganda and high-profile political mobilisation campaigns.

Despite this, Kabuleta argued that Uganda’s future transition will resemble previous political settlements seen after major political upheavals.

“After decades of dictatorship, power is negotiated,” he said.

He referenced the 1979 Moshi Conference that followed the fall of Idi Amin, where different Ugandan political actors gathered to discuss the country’s future.

“There will be something like that. It will not be a direct transition from Museveni to another person,” he said.

Kabuleta further argued that no future leader is likely to wield the same level of authority Museveni has exercised over Uganda since 1986.