Experts predict violent election campaign climax

Political observers are warning that the remarkably peaceful start to the presidential election campaign—a tranquility acknowledged by both the Uganda Police and opposition figures like Joel Ssenyonyi, the Leader of Opposition in Parliament—may be temporary. 

The campaigns, which started on September 29 have seen no major running battles, similar to previous elections, between security forces and government security forces.

Electoral Commission Chairman Justice Simon Byabakama recently expressed relief, stating that 'our prayers seem to have worked,’ while Mr Ssenyoni admitted to being surprised by the conduct of the police and the military.

Analysts, however,  fear the most volatile period is yet to come.

Speaking on the weekly talk show, The Capital Gang, political analyst Yusuf Sserunkuma argued that the current quiet atmosphere is not necessarily a positive indicator of democratic progress.

"These campaigns have been so peaceful, even the opposition leaders are almost calling President Museveni a democrat," Sserunkuma stated. 

"But when you see these nominations and campaigns being this peaceful, either it is the resignation of those who are fighting against the autocracy, or the autocracy has finally figured out how to fully control those fighting it."

Sserunkuma says the biggest concern remains in the final weeks of the electoral season, particularly when the campaign moves closer to the country’s political heartland, Kampala.

According to the campaign roadmap, both President Museveni and his closest challenger Bobi Wine will climax their campaigns in Kampala City.

Sserunkuma drew a parallel to the 2021 election, noting that the moment of true confrontation came in November and December.

"That was when we saw the true face of this government, because that is the season that worries this government," he explained.

He posits that the government’s deepest fear is not simply losing the presidential election, but rather what the opposition might choose to pursue during this "momentous electoral season."

"As we have observed, what Museveni and his people fear most is not that these people are going to win an election, but what more they can do in the electoral process. Whether they can use the momentous electoral season to push the government out of office."

Sserunkuma predicts that as campaigns near the centre of the country in the Buganda region—getting closer to vital locations like State House Nakasero or Entebbe—security forces will become significantly more anxious. 

"That is when things will get worrying. That is when we shall see if this election will be quiet as it is now or if much more will happen," he concluded, predicting a violent climax to the campaign period.