How Olara Otunnu created UN’s current voting system: will it favour him as candidate?

When Uganda’s Olara Otunnu enters the United Nations Security Council’s secretive selection process for the next secretary-general, he will be competing under rules he helped create more than four decades ago.

The former Ugandan diplomat is credited with developing the Security Council’s informal “straw poll” system in 1981, a method that has since become a part of choosing the UN chief. The same process is now being used to assess his own chances of succeeding António Guterres. 

Otunnu, who was Uganda’s permanent representative to the UN from 1980 to 1985, served as president of the Security Council in 1981, when the body faced a difficult search for a new secretary-general. 

Before the introduction of the straw polls, the selection of a UN secretary-general often involved prolonged negotiations among Security Council members, especially the five permanent members — China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States — who hold veto power.

In 1981, the council was struggling to find consensus on a successor to Kurt Waldheim, whose tenure was ending. 

Otunnu introduced a confidential voting method to allow members to privately express their views on candidates without immediately turning the process into a public diplomatic confrontation.

The system involved asking council members which candidates they would “encourage” and which they would “discourage”. 

It was designed to identify candidates with broad support while quietly revealing those who faced opposition from powerful members. 

The process helped break the deadlock and contributed to the emergence of Javier Pérez de Cuéllar of Peru as secretary-general. It later became known as the “Otunnu Formula”.

The straw poll is not a formal election. Instead, it is an informal indication of where each candidate stands among the 15 members of the Security Council.

Members vote anonymously and indicate whether they “encourage”, “discourage” or have “no opinion” about a candidate. 

The early rounds do not reveal which candidate may face opposition from a permanent member. Later rounds use colour-coded ballots to show whether a candidate faces a possible veto from one of the five permanent members. 

The Security Council eventually recommends one candidate to the UN General Assembly, which formally appoints the secretary-general.

Otunnu’s supporters argue that his long experience with the UN system, including designing the selection mechanism itself, gives him a unique understanding of how the process works.

“He is the expert on this process and I am glad we have the innovator of this standard method of selection of the Secretary General of the UN,” said former Prime Minister Dr Ruhakana Rugunda on Tuesday.

“I am glad that he is most probably going to benefit from his own formula.” 

Rugunda, who is the lead campaigner for Mr Olara Otunnu was addressing members of the press at the Uganda Media Center.

At 75, Otunnu brings decades of diplomatic experience. He previously served as UN under-secretary-general and special representative for children and armed conflict from 1997 to 2005, where he led international efforts on protecting children affected by war. 

His campaign focuses on reforming the UN, strengthening conflict prevention, addressing climate challenges and improving global governance, including oversight of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence.

However, knowledge of the system does not automatically translate into votes.

The first straw poll of the 2026 race showed Otunnu facing an uphill battle. He received two “encourage” votes, five “discourage” votes and eight “no opinion” votes, placing him behind several other contenders. 

The early result means he will need to convince more Security Council members that he can build consensus among competing global powers.

Otunnu joined the race as the seventh candidate seeking to replace Guterres, whose second term ends in 2026.

Other candidates include Rebeca Grynspan of Costa Rica, Carolyn Rodrigues-Birkett of Guyana, Rafael Grossi of Argentina, Michelle Bachelet of Chile, Maria Fernanda Espinosa of Ecuador and Macky Sall of Senegal. 

The race comes at a time when there is pressure for greater representation, including calls for the first woman to lead the United Nations.